Fewer Windows of Opportunity for an Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Reactors

Looking for Moonless Nights and No Dust Storms

Israeli F-16i Airforce

In order to succesfully carry a stealthy attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Israel needs among other things to do it within five days of the new moon, Israel will attack – from five days before to five days after – just as they did when they took out the Syrian reactor in 2010. Another aspect to have into account is the blinding duststorms which take place in Iran most of all during the springtime, in March and April. Incidentally, this is the exact time when Obama says he will do it, if Israel does not pour water on his electoral coffee by attacking Iran and pushing up the price of oil before November elections in America. Of course, its a deceiving ruse, but we already dealt with that.Now, what is the point with the New Moon in an era of cybernetic warfare? It is to be expected that Israel, with her unique electronic prowess – second to none in the world – will blind all radars and satellites in the Middle East, thus leaving everyone with the old-fashion need to use their eyes and ears. So, do not expect much in that area. In that way the moon shall be the encumbrance to grapple with since obviously the IAF (Israeli Air Force) will not want to make it easy for our countless enemies in the area of the Mideast, all of who are greatly interested in easily identifying the Israeli aircrafts involved in the prophilatic action and shooting them down. Of course, everyone is expecting Israel to attack during a new moon, so maybe we should attack at a different moment — who knows, maybe during a full moon. Remember, we are dealing here with mere educated possibilites. At any rate, a new moon renders the darkest nights in the month, so it is not wrong to think of it as a perfect opportunity to take out nuclear facilities in Iran.

Following a majority vote by the Israel Security Council authorizing Iranian an “action” when required, thus answering the question of “if“, so only leaving open the question of “when.”

There are left only some 10-day New Moon windows for the remainder of 2012; and if one removes the sandstorm prone month of September, and that winter is never a time of choice far wars in the Middle East, then there are even less open periods in which our military strike can normally occur.

From Rapidan Group

2012 New Moons Schedule

Timing Considerations based on press reports, officials see high odds of an attack sometime between 2Q12 and the end of the year, with most pointing to 2Q or 3Q. If Israel elects to conduct a conventional military strike, the optimal conditions would be moonless and cloudless nights. “Operation Orchard,” Israel’s attack on Syria’s reactor at Al-Kibar on Sep 6, 2007, took place 5 days before the new moon. This suggests windows starting about 5 days before a new moon and ending five days after – see the table below. Low humidity is also ideal, but not required.Attackers would want to avoid sandstorms, which have afflicted Iran in April, July, and September in recent years. Last year, a large sandstorm in mid-April hit 20 provinces, forcing the shutdown of schools and businesses. Sandstorms are visible and predictable, however, and would be taken into account by planners.

For non-kinetic options, climate is not a consideration to our knowledge. Presumably, they would be tried before kinetic ones and only after leaders were convinced Iran had not yet felt enough pain to compel it to freeze enrichment.

What will happen, when, and how is all a matter of speculation. What is for sure that the current tension has to be released somehow, sometime.



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